Risk

Each project's uncertain inputs are Monte-Carlo'd with correlation into an NPV distribution — not a single number. Red is the loss region (NPV<0); the dashed line is the CVaR downside tail. The tornado ranks which inputs actually move NPV.

plating-line — New plating line

Mean NPV 103 · P(NPV<0) 0.09 · CVaR -40

robot-cell — Robotic work cell

Mean NPV 121 · P(NPV<0) 0.05 · CVaR -21

power-upgrade — Electrical service upgrade

Mean NPV -46 · P(NPV<0) 0.98 · CVaR -93

tank-monitoring — Tank-monitoring retrofit

Mean NPV 67 · P(NPV<0) 0.00 · CVaR 27

paint-booth-east — Paint capacity — east line

Mean NPV 57 · P(NPV<0) 0.15 · CVaR -46

paint-booth-west — Paint capacity — west line

Mean NPV 68 · P(NPV<0) 0.18 · CVaR -70

emissions-scrubber — Emissions scrubber (compliance)

Mean NPV -195 · P(NPV<0) 1.00 · CVaR -250

specialty-coating-line — Specialty-coating line

Mean NPV 281 · P(NPV<0) 0.30 · CVaR -887