Capex Decision Engine

A risk-adjusted capital-allocation engine: it scores candidate plant capex projects on NPV/IRR/payback, Monte-Carlos the uncertain inputs (with correlation) into a distribution of outcomes, and picks the funded portfolio under a budget cap — built to defend the high-ROI project you deliberately killed.

What it will do

• Deterministic metrics per project: NPV, IRR, payback, profitability index, MIRR.
• Correlated Monte Carlo → NPV distribution: mean, P(NPV<0), CVaR downside tail.
• Tornado / sensitivity — “what would change my mind.”
• Risk-adjusted portfolio optimizer under a budget cap, honoring constraints.
• A grounded, human-edited investment memo — the optimizer decides, the LLM only explains.

Projects & metrics Risk distributions Portfolio & memo →

Start on Portfolio: move the budget and risk-aversion sliders and watch the funded set re-optimize — including the high-NPV project that gets cut.